Beware Cycle Global Economic Crisis

Macroeconomic expert at Harvard University, Jefffrey Frankel, macro economics would predict natural cycles of global economic crisis in 2012. He spoke in the forum "Coping With Asia's in the Multi-speed Global Economy" held the IMF, Bank Indonesia, and
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Nusa Dua, Bali (ANTARA News) - The macro economist from Harvard University, Jeffrey Frankel, reminiscent of the possibility of global economic crisis cycle every 15 years.

"The implications of this crisis mainly hit the markets grow in 2012," he said during a talk on "Coping With Asia` s Large capital inflows In a Multi-speed Global Economy "in Nusa Dua, Bali, on Friday.

Forum of academics and founder of the state and central bank policies in the Asia-Pacific region was initiated by the International Monetary Fund, Bank Indonesia, and BPKM.

Frankel study on the global economic crisis due to international capital flows occur three times, first in 1975-1981 when the "gift" of world oil production led to the worldwide financial crisis. Product finally occurred in 1982 led to the "lost generation" in Latin America in 1982-1989.

The second cycle occurs in the blast growing markets in 1990-1996. Indonesia and Thailand suffered a big shock due to political and economic crisis which is also due to policies of the IMF on how to handle Indonesia's foreign debt burden.

In this second cycle, Latin American countries, namely Brazil and Argentina, together with Turkey and Russia also suffered due to continued monetary crisis in 1998-2002.

The last one in 2003-2008 which to delay the global financial crisis after the period, namely in 2008-2009. This third cycle may be led to the birth of the fourth cycle in 2010-2011.

"But times change. Today many developing countries have surpassed developed economies. In the 2008-2009 recession, China, Indonesia, India still has good economic growth rates, as well as their fiscal positions," he said.

Moreover, the position of private savings fund grow market countries are also growing steadily enhanced with fiscal policy with more mengeyampingkan prosiklik mechanism.

As a result, the credit rating market countries that grow better. Singapore, China, South Korea, Malaysia, and India has ranked in the top Belgium, Japan, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece.

The problem that then arises due to cyclical and capital movements, he said, is how central banks manage it. "Whether through capital controls, central bank intervention, or sterilization. As for the government of each country is through fiscal policy or whether agricultural commodities," he said.

Especially for central banks, capital controls can be applied in case of price penalty policies more moderate than the mere prohibition. "It would be better if it was designed to change the composition of capital inflows in addition to short-term interests, or bank loans," he said.

Indonesia in the Global Economic Crisis Whirls

WHEN is the global economy was sinking. Prolonged political crisis in the Middle East that begins in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya with bubbling in campurnya helped coalition forces, making global oil prices worse off. Saturday, March 26 yesterday, world oil prices recorded USD105, 40 per barrel. Even predictable, that price will still be an increase in the level of USD200 per barrel.

Of course, the world oil price increase will affect the economy of Indonesia. If the government does not reduce fuel subsidies (fuel), then the burden of state budget revenue and expenditure (budget) will be more swollen. However, Chief Economiest Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), Ryan Irianto in Customer Gathering Area BNI Makassar recently judging, events in the Middle East only further impact.

The most threatening call Ryan is the impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Because the state was nicknamed Affairs of the Rising Sun is directly related to the Indonesian economy. Especially with the explosion of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima Prefecture, will cause energy "Asian Tigers" were dropped. World Bank Chief Economist for Asia Pacific region Vikram Nehru in Washington explained, if the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed from 0.25 to 0.5 percent of Japan, exports from Asia Pacific countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines will slow down more than 1, 5 percent.

Japan is the third major export destination countries of Indonesia, particularly fishery products. Based on the data presented Chairman of the Association of Fishery Products Processing and Marketing Indonesia (AP5I), Thomas said, fishery product exports to Japan during the period January-September 2010 worth approximately USD16, 5 million. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), total Indonesian non-oil exports to Japan during 2010 amounted to USD16, 496 billion.

How to Sulawesi? Head of Foreign Trade Department of Industry and Trade of South Sulawesi, Habib Ahmad said the total exports to Japan, South Sulawesi in 2010 USD1, 315 billion. Of the total exports, the contribution of nickel by 67 percent. In 2010, total exports of nickel USD1, 276 billion, while 2009 only USD760 million.

Other exports to Japan which included a large fresh fish in 2010 was $ 4, 96 million, shrimp USD19, 7 million, flying fish eggs $ 4, 5 million. Achmad hoped, for the short term the U.S. market, Singapore, Malaysia also can offset a decline in export value to the Land of the Rising Sun. Moreover, economic growth in South Sulawesi more driven by agriculture and fishery sectors.

Data Department of Marine and Fisheries of South Sulawesi, South Sulawesi fishery exports in 2010 reached 54,711.3 tons, worth USD156.645, 4 million. Of 4896 tons of frozen shrimp or equivalent USD52.760, 4 million, amounting to 41,588 tons of sea grass or USD47.445, 3 million. Tuna, skipjack and tuna at 2978.3 tonnes or USD20.650 million, and other fish, amounting to 5249 tons or equivalent USD35.789, 7 million. However, the Malaysian market, the U.S. and China, seems to be an alternative export of South Sulawesi. Data Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said South Sulawesi, in January 2011 exports to Japan reached only $ 4, 817 million. Others to Malaysia USD15, 436 million, U.S. $ 8, 065 million, and China USD9, 697 million, 2.742 million Singapore, the Netherlands USD0, 759 million, Germany $ 3, 081 million, Vietnam USD1, 838 million, and South Korea $ 1, 762 million