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Sunday, May 29, 2011

The weakening of Exchange Rate is a Force Majeur

I'm sure nobody would ever have thought that within a period of ten years since the monetary crisis memorakmorandakan national economy, we will experience the same crisis again with different causes. In 1997, Indonesia is considered weak economic fundamentals so that when the crisis hit Southeast Asia, we immediately dropped. The rupiah weakened to the point of the most humiliating history of exchange rate our pride, Rp16000 per U.S. $ 1. Now, when our economic fundamentals "reported" good, it turns out that our economy, too, fall when bankruptcy hit the United States. The value of our currency slumped again to the level Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1. What can I say?

Force Majeur

The government should declare this weakening of the rupiah as force majeure due to such natural disasters, we also can not deny his arrival. Moreover, everyone knows that this is a global crisis where our country is powerless against it.

The contractors of government projects are always paid in the currency of rupiah to the dollar when they spend a lot of Americans who suffered losses from the weakening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar. Three months ago, the rupiah against the U.S. dollar still in Rp9200 level of per U.S. $ 1. Today, when the rupiah reached Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1, the effect is like a natural disaster. The government contractor would not be able to bear the foreign exchange reached Rp3000's. I am sure many government contractors who experience it.

Government as an employer might say that contractors should have been calculating the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. However, the contractor which calculate cost of goods sold with Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 three months ago? On average, the contractor calculates the estimated foreign exchange amounting to Rp9500 per U.S. $ 1 on the U.S. dollar fluctuated in numbers Rp9200 - Rp9300. Which calculates the estimated exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 Rp10000 I do not think there is any.

Today, many companies do not dare to follow the tender for the procurement of goods (especially IT) by the government. The partner government does not dare to bear the losses due to foreign exchange because no one can guarantee that the exchange rate of rupiah against the U.S. dollar will continue or strengthen. That's when the new tender implemented. What about the tender has been announced or determined the winner in this two-weekly? We all know that the government tendering process starting from the announcement of the winner of the auction until the appointment of more than one month duration. A month ago, no one uses contractors estimates Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1. Most likely, the highest estimates used are Rp10000 per U.S. $ 1.

Many government contractors who have a dilemma. At the time it has been set as the winner, they will be included on the blacklist (black list) when to resign. Meanwhile, if still do the job, they will lose big. In my opinion, the government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a policy regarding this. If in 2005 the government had issued a policy of price ekskalasi the face of this global economic catastrophe the government has not issued a similar policy.

When the dollar price range in Rp9200 - Rp9300, calculate the dollar price Rp10000 HPP was going to say distension (mark up) by the IG, BPK and KPK. The reason that no one can guarantee that prices will not increase the dollar will not be accepted by the IG, BPK and KPK. However, if the problem has happened like this, what will be said by the IG, CPC or KPK? Pity her, the government contractor. Currently, many government contractors who are working on jobs in government agencies that loss. Loss, not only declined but profit is completely loss.

The importance of the transaction with the amount in the domestic

Two times of economic crisis in decades should provide lessons for us all about the importance of dealing with the amount in the country. Government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a Regulation of the Minister of Finance regarding the obligation transactions in rupiah in the country. If Permenkeu not strong enough, the President should issue a presidential decree. If not enough, must be regulated in an Act. If a member of the House, I would propose that given the importance of making Rupiah as host in his own country and keep the business climate in the country to keep it running stable.

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